| AP Sports Headlines |
Wednesday, July 17, 2002
One man's math: Woods has 13 percent chance for Grand Slam
By STEPHEN WADE
AP Sports Writer
GULLANE, Scotland (AP) - What are the chances of Tiger Woods completing the Grand Slam by winning the British Open on Sunday and the PGA next month?
According to a University of Buffalo "probabilist," it's 13 percent.
"But if he doesn't make it this year, there is a 30 percent chance he'll eventually achieve a Grand Slam over the next 20 years, based on his success rate in past major championships," Christopher Rump said.
Rump is an assistant professor of industrial engineering whose work involves creating operational systems that assist traffic, telecommunications and computers.
He points out that Woods has won 36 percent of the majors he's entered.
"If Tiger continues to win at that rate, his chances in any given year of achieving the Grand Slam are 1.75 percent or 56-1 odds," Rump said. "Of course, now that he's halfway there, the chances increase to 13 percent that it will happen this year."
Using a statistical model invented by a Russian mathematician to predict outcomes, Rump also figures that Woods has a 60 percent chance of completing another "Tiger Slam" _ four consecutive major victories spanning two seasons _ if he continues at his current pace for the next 80 majors.
"Jack Nicklaus won the Masters when he was 46, so it's not inconceivable that Tiger's still winning majors 20 years from now," Rump said.
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THE ODDS:@ London bookmaker William Hill has Woods at 13-8 to win this year's British Open _ and 4-1 to complete the Grand Slam this year.
Following Woods, the odds are: 14-1, Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson; 18-1, Sergio Garcia; 28-1, Padraig Harrington and Davis Love; 33-1, David Duval and Retief Goosen; 40-1, Darren Clarke, Justin Leonard, Colin Montgomerie, Nick Price, Vijay Singh and David Toms; 50-1, Michael Campbell, Nick Faldo and Justin Rose; 66-1, Jim Furyk, Tom Lehman and Robert Allenby.
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TIGER ROSE:@ From the 17-year-old amateur who nearly won the British Open to the rookie pro who began by missing 21 cuts in a row, Englishman Justin Rose already has experienced the highs and lows of golf.
He is grouped with Woods and Japan's Shigeki Maruyama in the first two rounds of the British Open.
"I suppose it hasn't sunk in," he said. "It's the world No. 1 and I'm on the world stage with him. It's important for me not to get sucked into playing Tiger _ not to worry about what he's playing off the tee but to concentrate on what my own game is doing."
Approaching his 22nd birthday, Rose is four years younger than the reigning Masters and U.S. Open champion and is starting to fulfill the potential he showed when he placed fourth at the British Open as an amateur in 1998. He has won four tournaments this year.
"It shows how far I have come in a very short period of time," Rose said.
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JUST SMARTER:@ Duval, the defending British Open champion, knows Woods' secret: He's smarter than everybody else he plays.
"I think that there are other players as talented," Duval said Tuesday. "I think that he is as mechanically sound as anybody. I think he works as hard as anybody. And I think he tends to outthink a lot of people and outmanage his game, outmanage other players.
"Everyone is aware Tiger is extremely efficient and extremely good at what he does. I think if Tiger Woods is playing his best and if other players are playing their best, I don't think there is as big of a difference between them as everyone thinks there is."
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WHAT TO DO?:@ Harrington asks the same question many do before a major: Attack or play safe?
"I haven't figured it out yet," said Harrington, in the top 10 in this year's Masters and U.S. Open. "I would like to have a good handle psychologically on what I should be thinking before the start."
He was midway through a practice round with Rose on Tuesday when they learned the young Englishman will play with Woods and Maruyama in the first two rounds.
"With Maruyama in the group as well, Justin's got probably the two most popular people with the cameramen," Harrington said. "Shigeki will probably have about 30 and Tiger about 50.
"If Justin can
enjoy it that will be great. But I think it's going to be more
of a learning process. Maybe it will inspire him, but I suggest
it will actually hinder his chances. There's definitely going
to be a distraction there, and it will be harder."
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