Saturday, August 30, 1997

Can the Cowboys make it back to the Super Bowl?

By Lance Fleming / Abilene Reporter-News

The question is asked almost everywhere these days: Will the Cowboys return to the Super Bowl this season?

The best guess from this corner is maybe.

Dallas still has as much talent as any team in the league, but not the depth it once displayed. But, hey, with the salary cap, no team in the NFL will ever again have as much depth as the 1992-93 Cowboys had.

If everything breaks right for the Cowboys, then this is a team that, despite playing against the league's toughest schedule, could still contend for home-field advantage.

But no team in today's NFL goes through a season and gets every break. If it did, why hasn't a team gone undefeated since the 1972 Dolphins?

The Cowboys are apparently counting on young kickers Richie Cunningham and Toby Gowin, a rookie linebacker in Dexter Coakley and an inexperienced center in Clay Shiver. Breakdowns in any of those areas could lead to Dallas to fall to 10-6 for the second straight season, or maybe even 9-7 and scratching for a playoff berth.

But as we get closer to Sunday's regular-season opener, I see the Cowboys finishing anywhere from 11-5 to 13-3 during the regular season.

The offense, which was awful throughout the 1996 campaign, will be much improved this season. Troy Aikman and Michael Irvin toyed with defenders throughout the preseason, although Irvin should count on seeing plenty of double-teams until Anthony Miller proves he's healthy enough to be a threat.

Emmitt Smith will be OK, and the offensive line can't possibly play much worse than it did most of last season. Plus the tight end situation is better with a healthy Eric Bjornson, rookie David LaFleur and solid third man Scott Galbraith.

Granted, the defense won't be as good as it was last year when it finished No. 3 in the NFL, but it won't slide as far as a lot of people think.

Yes, Leon Lett will miss at least 13 games, and his replacement is an aging Tony Casillas. But the linebackers will be fast, and nobody in the league will field a better secondary ... when Deion Sanders is healthy, that is.

All this means the Cowboys should be in the thick of the race for Super Bowl XXXII in San Diego. But you still have to make Green Bay the favorite.

After all, the Packers have the league's best player in Brett Favre, a better defensive front seven than the Cowboys and a Nov. 23 home date against Dallas.

But Dallas has this on its side: An 8-0 record this decade against Green Bay. Sure, seven of those were played in Dallas, but the Cowboys would have won those games no matter where they were played; they were simply the better team.

The Packers, no matter what they accomplished last season, still have to prove they can beat the Cowboys. And don't think there's not a little bit of a mental block in that area.

The key for the Cowboys? Getting off to a quick start.

Last year's 1-3 start doomed them for the rest of the season, and they can't afford a repeat this season.

Five of their first eight games -- including trips to Washington and Philadelphia -- are on the road, and of those eight, four will be against playoff teams.

If Dallas can make it through that at 7-1 or 6-2, watch out. The second half of the schedule sees the Cowboys going to San Francisco (Nov. 2) and Green Bay (Nov. 23), but it also includes home games against Washington, Tennessee, Carolina and the New York Giants.

A fast start, combined with a fast finish, could help the Cowboys qualify for their fourth Super Bowl in six seasons.

The proving ground begins Sunday in Pittsburgh.