Contenders abound if Woods falters
By Frank Luksa / The Dallas Morning News
AUGUSTA, Ga. -- Forecast as a forfeit to Tiger Woods, the 62nd
Masters will play out its four-day commitment just in case Jack
Nicklaus could be wrong. Or, if the six-time champion is right,
to decide who might finish a distant second.
Nicklaus has donated the title to Woods with so much conviction
that he made the season's first major tournament sound like a
charity event. Tiger's destiny is to collect all the green in
various forms -- money, jacket and peer envy that a 22-year-old
clubbed the Augusta National course senseless again. Handouts
will be doled to runners-up.
So predicted the now-olden Golden Bear before anyone teed off
Thursday to test his theory: "I'll be very suprised if he
doesn't win. If he plays just normal, I think he'll probably win
the tournament. If he plays poorly, I think he'll still be in
contention. If he plays well, I think he'll run away with the
tournament."
We interrupt to check Jack's gift for prophesy. His vision
of the future hasn't always been 20-20. He foresaw Colin Montgomerie
winning the 1992 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach and passed that knowledge
to the television audience. When Tom Kite came on to win, he did
so disguised as a mirage.
Picking Woods is hardly the stuff of deep analysis. Las Vegas
likes him. He's booked there as a 7-1 favorite. It's harder to
find anyone willing to paddle against the pro-Tiger tide and risk
drowning in ridicule.
What Woods did at the Masters a year ago astonished. He set
20 records and tied six more. He did not three-putt. He joined
Ben Crenshaw (1988) as the only players to tour the back nine
without a bogey. He hit only three bunker shots.
Tiger used a second-shot wedge to reach the 15th green and
a nine-iron at other par-fives. His longest effort to a par-four
required a seven-iron. He finished 18 under, won by 12 over Kite,
but now faces a different challenge.
Doing it again.
What if the unaccountable happens? What if Woods comes up flat
or a shot short?
The Masters is often where things bump under the magnolias.
Things like Greg Norman fumbling a six-shot lead to Nick Faldo
on the final round in 1996. Crenshaw's four days of serendipity
in '95, when he won amid the sorrow of mentor Harvey Penick's
death. Fred Couples and his gravity-defying shot on the par-three
12th that saved victory in '92. Or first-round leader John Huston
making eagle on the 18th last year and 10 the next day at No.
15.
Then who wins?
PGA statistics suggest John Daly could. Daly is longer by eight
yards than Woods, and length is a constant premium at Augusta
National. Here's a shock. Daly also is the No. 1-ranked putter,
and putting is the other key to success. But Daly is just as likely
to shoot 77 as 67 and has cracked 70 only three times in 20 rounds
at Augusta.
It is further possible for Daly to shoot 18 on a single hole.
He did it recently at Bay Hill. You never know if Daly's head
is in the game or under his arm.
Couples looms as a solid contender. He's never missed a cut
in 13 appearances. He's a former champion, which brings up something
else about the Masters. Strangers don't win it. The list of recent
winners is heavy on cream ... Woods, Faldo, Crenshaw, Jose Maria
Olazabal, Bernhard Langer, Couples and so on.
The nag about going with Couples is the same pain that often
ails him. His back can stiffen at any moment. There are better,
healthier upset choices.
Ernie Els leads this group. Twice a U.S. Open champion, Els
often rolls out his A-plus game for majors. He's made noise about
playing too timidly here in the past and spoken of a bombs-away
approach this time. The hitch on Els: In 14 previous rounds, he's
bested two-under 70 only once.
Justin Leonard can't be dismissed. His specialty is catching
the rabbit from behind. He came from five back to capture the
Players Championship two weeks ago and made up the same deficit
to win the 1997 British Open. Leonard tied for seventh a year
ago in his third Masters, an indication he has absorbed the nuances
of Augusta National.
Shaky putting usually removes Tom Lehman from contending status.
He's steady otherwise. Those searching for a streak player would
do well to watch Mark Calcavecchia. His last three starts have
been a win at the Honda Classic, tie for fourth at Bay Hill and
fourth at the Players Championship.
However, if Woods doesn't win this Masters, neither will any
of the above contenders. My long-shot pick is the 1994 champion,
a foreign entry who's finished the last seven Masters with sub-par
scores. OLE! It's the smallish matador from Spain: Olazabal.
---
(Frank Luksa is a sports columnist for the Dallas Morning News.
Write to him at: Dallas Morning News, Communications Center, Dallas,
Texas 75265.) X X X
(c) 1998, The Dallas Morning News.
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